North Korea conducted a failed test of an intermediate-range ballistic missile on Thursday morning, shortly after the U.S and South Korea wrapped up high-level security talks in Washington.
The U.S. Strategic Command and South Korea’s Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said this attempted launch seemed to replicate Saturday’s failed test in that it involved the same type of missile, a Mudsudan with a range of 3,000 kilometers, from the same location, the western city of Kusong.
That missile test also ended in failure, but analysts say that each test is helping North Korea advance its capabilities and reach its goal of developing a credible nuclear ballistic missile arsenal that could potentially strike the U.S. mainland.
South Korea and Japan immediately condemned Thursday’s missile test.
Earlier this week the United Nations Security Council issued a strong condemnation of Saturday’s launch attempt by the North, saying it was “a clear violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions” and an “illegal act of provocation.”
The Kim Jong Un government has responded defiantly to tough U.N. sanctions imposed on North Korea in March by conducting numerous missile launches and a second nuclear test in one year.
Extended deterrence
The North’s latest provocation followed an announcement by the United States and South Korea on Wednesday to further strengthen their security alliance with the start of talks on an “extended deterrence” against a nuclear North Korea.
The U.S., at its bases in South Korea, is considering the permanent deployment of B-1B and nuclear capable B-52 bombers, F-22 stealth fighter jets and nuclear powered submarines, according to defense and diplomatic sources.
Wednesday’s establishment of a high-level Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group is being accompanied by unusually blunt public comments from the U.S. secretaries of defense and state about the possibility of nuclear war initiated by Pyongyang on the Korean peninsula.
“Any use of nuclear weapons will be met with an overwhelming and effective response,” said U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter at the start of 2+2 security talks with the South Korean defense and foreign ministers.
South Korea’s security is guaranteed by the “full spectrum of U.S. defense capabilities,” Carter said in a reference to the American nuclear defense shield protecting the U.S. ally.
‘Dagger against our throats’
Carter made his comments seated alongside U.S. Secretary of Defense John Kerry and two South Korean government officials – Minister of National Defense Han Min-koo and Minister of Foreign Affairs Yun Byung-se.
Hours later, Secretary of State John Kerry, at a news conference standing alongside Yun, repeated the same stark rhetoric and predicted “North Korea will never attain its goals through threats and intimidation.”
Yun, at the start of the talks, said Pyongyang is nearing the “final stage of nuclear weaponization” compelling the United States and South Korea to utilize “all tools in the tool kit” to defend themselves and make the North Koreans “feel the panic under their skins.”
Han then said North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles are akin to “a dagger against our throats.”
THAAD deployment
While continuing to work for denuclearization, “we need to ensure working together that the DPRK pays a price for its dangerous actions,” said Kerry.
Amid what he termed a “pivotal moment” on the Korean peninsula, Kerry added that the United States will deploy to South Korea “as soon as possible” a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery.
China and some in South Korea oppose the deployment of the anti-ballistic missile system, contending it unnecessarily exacerbates tensions in the region.
Kerry maintained that the military option to stop North Korea’s ongoing nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs is “a last resort.”
Analysts’ reactions
Wednesday’s tougher language from top U.S. officials caught some by surprise, but it will be welcomed by hawks who argue that diplomacy and economic sanctions have failed to deter Pyongyang.
“I don’t think this stronger rhetoric is going to deter them from taking the next step, whatever their next is,” said CSIS-Pacific Forum adjunct fellow Tara O, the author of “The Collapse of North Korea: Challenges, Planning and Geopolitics of Unification.”
Other analysts question the potential basing of U.S. Air Force bombers to American bases in South Korea.
“I don’t see why you need B-52s and B-1s on the peninsula. That puts them within DPRK short-range missiles, and therefore more vulnerable than if they remain at Andersen (Air Force Base on Guam).
“They can fly to Korea in a few hours,” said Troy University international relations professor Daniel Pinkston, author of “The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program.”
Basing such aircraft and THAAD on the Korean peninsula, he said, would cause China “to be in an uproar” and officials in Pyongyang and Beijing to assert that such forward deployed assets are really intended to deter the Chinese.
Carter’s stark reference Wednesday to nuclear retaliation will raise questions about “are we seriously going to use” the nuclear option, said the retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel who did three tours of duty on the Korean peninsula and also specialized in regional security matters at the Pentagon.
“Someone has to make a decision on what will be an acceptable cost if we are to carry out anything beyond rhetoric,” Pinkston told VOA.
The two Koreas have no diplomatic ties and have technically remained at war since a devastating three-year conflict in the early 1950s ended in stalemate. The Korean War drew in Chinese forces supporting the North, while a U.S.-led United Nations coalition countered the North’s invasion of the South.
VOA correspondent Brian Padden contributed to this report from Seoul.
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