STATE DEPARTMENT — Three years into Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, China is closely monitoring U.S. President Donald Trump’s strategy to end the war, as Beijing calculates its moves to position itself as a strategic partner for Ukraine while maintaining a no‐limits partnership with Russia, according to experts and former officials.
This week, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are set to hold in-person meetings in Washington, following the Feb. 18 direct talks between senior U.S. and Russian officials in Riyadh, the Saudi capital.
Macron met with Trump Monday morning at the White House for a meeting that lasted nearly two hours. Both leaders participated in a videoconference with other G7 leaders about Ukraine.
Earlier on Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who updated Xi on the Riyadh talks and reaffirmed the “comprehensive strategic partnership” between Russia and China. A Chinese readout said, “China welcomes the positive efforts made by Russia and relevant parties to resolve the crisis.”
‘Crisis’ but not war
For three years, Chinese officials have said Beijing will “play a constructive role” in the “political settlement of the crisis,” refraining from using the term “Ukraine war” to describe Russia’s aggression since Feb. 24, 2022.
Beijing also commended the recent U.S.-Russia talks, during which Ukraine was not present.
China and Ukraine “established a strategic partnership in 2011. … In recent years, China has been Ukraine’s largest trading partner,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha on Feb. 15 on the margins of the Munich Security Conference.
“Regarding the Ukrainian crisis … China has always worked for peace and promoted talks,” Wang said. Notably, the Chinese readout of the meeting made no mention of Ukraine’s sovereignty or territorial integrity.
On Feb. 20, two days after the U.S.-Russia talks, Wang held in-person discussions with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the G20 ministerial meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, where Lavrov briefed him on the Riyadh talks. Wang reaffirmed China’s “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Russia.
Wang said China “supports” all efforts dedicated to peace, including “the recent consensus reached between the United States and Russia” in Riyadh.
Talks, not negotiations
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Riyadh talks — the first between Washington and Moscow in years — were not negotiations aimed at striking any deal on Ukraine, despite concerns from Ukraine and European countries that they were being sidelined.
He said the talks were intended to determine whether the Russians were serious about ending the war.
In a measured tone, Rubio characterized the talks — which lasted for more than four hours — as steps toward establishing “lines of communication” on bilateral issues between the United States and Russia. Among these efforts is the goal of achieving “some normalcy in our missions and their ability to function.”
Some analysts said Beijing is nervous over a reset of U.S.-Russia ties.
“While a complete rapprochement might not be in the cards, they’re nervous because if Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, then Moscow’s dependency on China decreases,” Dennis Wilder, who was a top White House China adviser to former U.S. President George W. Bush, told RFE/RL.
But others warned that the U.S. risked bolstering China’s global information campaign, which portrays Washington as an unreliable ally.
Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, a defense analyst at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), said, “We immediately gave away what leverage we had” and “misattributed who the aggressor was” while rushing into talks with the Russians.
China, “stumbling into this good news,” certainly gets the benefit, Montgomery said in a recent webinar hosted by FDD.
“I have no doubt that diplomats from China are whispering in ears around the world about the unreliability of Americans, and unfortunately, this administration is giving them some talking points,” Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the FDD, said during the webinar.
Experts skeptical
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson declined to comment on whether China would consider sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine after the conflict ends.
Xi and Putin are scheduled to exchange visits to Moscow and Beijing later this year. The two held a virtual meeting on Jan. 21. Additionally, Xi took a phone call from Putin on the afternoon of Feb. 24.
Some former U.S. officials are skeptical about the extent to which the Chinese government is genuinely willing to act to stop Russia’s war on Ukraine. They believe China may use the issue as leverage in its dealings with Trump.
“I think the Chinese will look at the Ukraine issue, and they will offer some help to Trump. They probably won’t do very much, and then they will claim success,” Evan Medeiros, director of Georgetown University’s Asian Studies program, said during a recent podcast with the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program. Medeiros served on the White House National Security Council from 2009 to 2015.
“Anything that is in their direct material interests, like helping to rebuild Ukraine, they will embrace. But of course, that doesn’t have to do with encouraging Russia to reach a peace deal. That’s about ensuring that Chinese infrastructure companies get lots of big fat contracts,” Medeiros added.
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