The Arctic is one of the coldest and least populated regions on Earth, much of it covered by ice. But in recent years it has become one of the most important sites of geopolitical tensions — and a key focus of American policy.

Despite its inhospitability, land north of the Arctic Circle has long been inhabited by Indigenous people like the Inuit, Sami and Yukaghir and today includes territories belonging to eight countries: Canada, Russia, Iceland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark and the United States.

In 1996, these countries formed the Arctic Council — a forum that includes all eight countries as member states along with representatives from Indigenous groups. But while the Arctic was once envisioned as a neutral zone where research and conservation could promote deeper international cooperation, multiple developments since then have turned it into a site of competition.

The number one issue facing the Arctic is climate change. Since the 1990s, Arctic sea ice has declined by 7.6 trillion metric tons, with the rate of loss increasing by 57%. Besides contributing to rising sea levels, the loss of ice also reduces global solar reflection. This creates a feedback loop as the darker ocean water absorbs more heat, causing more ice to melt, adversely affecting global weather patterns.

The melting of Arctic ice also directly affects local wildlife, with polar bear populations projected to decline by two-thirds in the next quarter-century as they lose their hunting grounds.

But where some see environmental disaster, others see opportunity. The melting ice is making Arctic trade routes more navigable, providing shorter distances for transoceanic shipping than current lanes using the Suez and Panama canals. Furthermore, increased navigability is expanding potential for exploration and extraction of natural resources.

The Arctic region is estimated to hold over 20% of the world’s remaining fossil fuel reserves, with over 400 oil and gas fields already discovered. Both the seabed and offshore areas also hold vast quantities of minerals ranging from staple commodities like iron, gold, nickel and zinc to rare earth metals such as neodymium and dysprosium, which are used in electronics and battery technology. Even traditional subsistence activity may be greatly altered and expanded as global warming leads fish stocks to migrate north and more coastal land becomes available for agriculture.

Yet economic opportunities in the Arctic are emerging at a time of increased geopolitical tensions, as countries scramble to secure resources, stake territorial claims and develop facilities.

With 53% of the Arctic coastline under its control, Russia has the largest presence in the region in terms of civilian ports like Murmansk and Arkhangelsk as well as multiple airfields and military bases along its northern border. More recently, Russia has moved to expand its claims to the Arctic seabed at the same time that its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has led other members of the Arctic Council to suspend cooperation with Moscow.

While land jurisdiction in the Arctic is largely settled aside from a few small disputes, maritime claims are much more complex. Control over Arctic waters is generally governed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which defines multiple types of territorial waters where a nation may have the right to restrict the activity of foreign vessels. These range from internal waters that are considered part of a nation’s sovereign territory to exclusive economic zones where foreign ships may travel freely but cannot extract resources.

Although the United States played a formative role in negotiating the treaty and abides by most of its provisions, it remains one of the few countries that has not formally acceded to it because of concerns about limitations it places on seabed mining.

Even among UNCLOS signatories, however, boundary definitions can vary. While Canada considers parts of the Northwest Passage to lie within its territorial waters, for example, most other nations including the United States consider it to be an international strait where foreign ships may transit.

Similarly, Russia has claimed parts of the Northeast Passage along its northern coastline as internal waters, moving to restrict the right of passage in areas where it was previously allowed.

Given these disputes, the Transpolar Sea Route through the center of the Arctic Ocean, which lies fully in international waters, will become more attractive as polar ice continues to thaw.

The increasing importance of the Arctic has attracted the attention of other powers without Arctic territory. Several of these states have been admitted as observers in the Arctic Council, including Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. China, which is also an observer, has unilaterally declared itself as a “near-Arctic state” and has expanded both research and commercial activity in the region by partnering with Russia as well as investing in infrastructure in Norway, Iceland and Greenland.

China’s increased presence in the Arctic alongside Russia’s more aggressive posture have been among the reasons cited for U.S. President Donald Trump’s insistence on annexing or buying Greenland, a territory of NATO ally Denmark. While Greenland already contains a U.S. military base on its northwest coast, the discussion is likely to result in a further militarization of the territory, even under Denmark.

Satellites are also expected to play a major role in exerting control within the Arctic, given the importance of observation and monitoring in remote areas with poor communications infrastructure.

What was once considered a frozen frontier with little to offer is quickly becoming one of the most contested regions on Earth. And as the planet heats up, competition in the Arctic will as well.
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