March 1 was Super Tuesday in the campaign to be the next U.S. president, but March 15 is shaping up to be a key date in determining the nature of the Republican race.
Businessman Donald Trump has led in national polls for months and used that support to win the most state primaries and caucuses so far. But while the once massive Republican field has dwindled to five candidates, there have been calls for Republicans to unite behind a single opponent who can earn enough delegates to prevent a Trump nomination.
March 15 is the date candidates can start earning all of a state’s delegates with a win rather than just a portion based on their percentage of the vote. It’s also when two key states — Florida and Ohio — have winner-take-all primaries.
Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have been running about even in polls, but far behind Trump. Neither has shown any sign of considering leaving the race. After Tuesday’s votes in 11 states, Cruz called for candidates who have yet to win a state to consider “coming together, uniting.”
“For those who have supported other candidates, we welcome you on our team standing united as one. That is the only way to beat Donald Trump,” Cruz said.
Still too early to drop out
Analysts say with the way candidates are able to amass at least some delegates with the proportional system, it is too early for those trailing to consider stepping aside.
“I don’t think you’re going to see much until March 15,” said Gary Nordlinger, an adjunct professor at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management. “March 15 is when you have a whole bunch of primaries, including Florida, Rubio’s home state. Rubio has plenty of money, he certainly has plenty of staying power. Why would he want to drop out?”
A candidate needs 1,237 delegates to clinch the Republican nomination. If no one gets to that level, the nominee will be determined at the party’s convention in July.
“I think what you’re going to see is as long as these people can afford to continue to participate they will stay in and participate if for no other reason than hoping that there’s an open convention in Cleveland,” Nordlinger said.
Republican strategist Ford O’Connell said the decisions on who stays in the race and for how long will not come for two weeks.
“I think that determination will be made on the 15th whether they’re going to have a two-man race or pack it all in for a stretch run to the convention,” said O’Connell.
Rubio is focused on Florida and its trove of 99 delegates. He told supporters there Tuesday night he accepts being an underdog in the race.
“We’ve all been underdogs. This is a community of underdogs. This is a state of underdogs. This is a country of underdogs. But we will win, and when we do we will do what needs to be done,” he said.
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has yet to win a state but said Tuesday he is not “not ready to quit.” Ohio Governor John Kasich has also yet to score a win and is counting on a boost from his state, where he trailed Trump by a few points in a recent poll.
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