LONDON — This year saw a battle for influence in eastern Europe between the West and Russia as elections were held in several states that were once under Soviet rule. Moscow is widely accused of meddling in European democracy amid tensions that have run high since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

Georgia 

In April, tens of thousands of Georgians staged demonstrations in Tbilisi against the government’s so-called “foreign agent” law, which requires all organizations receiving more than 20% of their funding from overseas to register and submit to detailed investigations.  

The legislation was dubbed the “Russian law” by its opponents, after similar laws long used by President Vladimir Putin’s government to silence political opposition and free media.  

The protests evolved into a battle for Georgia’s future: to be aligned with the West or with Russia. It is a fight that continues to this day on the streets of Tbilisi. 

Georgia’s opposition parties pinned their hopes on ousting the government in the October general election; however, the ruling Georgian Dream party won with more than 53% of the vote.  

Election monitors accused Georgian Dream of overseeing widespread vote rigging, including “ballot box stuffing, physical assault on observers attempting to report on violations, observer and media removal from polling stations, tearing up of observers’ complaints, intimidation of voters inside and outside polling stations,” according to the head of the European Parliament monitoring delegation, Antonio Lopez-Isturiz White. 

Georgian Dream insisted it won a fair election. The government suspended accession talks with the European Union. The United States in turn suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia.  

Many Georgians fear their hopes of a future tied to the West are being lost. Protesters returned to the streets in November, demanding another vote. 

“I just want us to look towards Europe and not back to the hole where we just got out,” said student Salome Bakhtadze. 

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze was unrepentant. “We are absolutely committed to fully neutralizing the radical opposition,” he said at a press conference on December 6. 

Moldova 

Moldova, another former Soviet republic, held a bitterly fought presidential election in October. 

Despite widespread evidence of meddling by Moscow, which it denied, pro-European incumbent Maia Sandu won the November second-round vote after Moldovans voted by a thin margin to embed the desire for EU membership in the nation’s constitution.  

“Today, dear Moldovans, you have given a lesson in democracy,” she said after her victory. 

Romania 

In neighboring Romania, far-right candidate Calin Georgescu, who opposes Western aid for Ukraine, scored a shock first-round win in November’s presidential election with 23% of the vote. Polls taken ahead of the vote suggested support for Georgescu was in the single digits.   

Romania’s top court annulled the result after security services uncovered an alleged disinformation campaign to promote Georgescu on social media, which was widely blamed on Russia. Moscow again denied meddling in the vote. 

“This candidate’s campaign was supported by a state foreign to Romania’s interests,” Romania’s incumbent president, Klaus Iohannis, said in a televised address on December 6. The country has yet to choose a new date for an election rerun. 

Election interference 

Russia is conducting a campaign of interference in European democracy — but the picture is complex, argues Costin Ciobanu, a political analyst at Aarhus University in Denmark. 

“There is evidence that Russia tried to use its tools to favor Georgescu, but we don’t know yet whether there was a direct coordination between the Georgescu campaign and Russia,” Ciobanu told VOA. 

“Russia is exploiting vulnerabilities within our democracies. They are leveraging the way in which social networks function in today’s democracies. But I would not say that all that is happening within our societies, that all the grievances and fury that we see is a result of Russia leveraging its hybrid warfare techniques.” 

“I would always emphasize the local vulnerabilities, the fact that sometimes you have this kind of gap between the elite and the population. And sometimes Russia is just trying to make those gaps wider,” Ciobanu said.
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